With elections in four of the world’s biggest democracies (India, Indonesia, Russia and the United States) and 27 European Union member states, 2024 has been an extraordinary year for votes. But one aspect of this election season has received relatively little attention: the potential link between unexpected outcomes and voters’ attitudes toward democracy.
Voters often express satisfaction with the way democracy works when they believe that their favorite party or candidate won a fair and competitive election. But how do they feel when that is not the case? We can learn a lot by studying the disconfirmation of their expectations.
A key factor is how frequently voters vote. Those who are frequent voters—that is, those who vote in three or more national elections per cycle—are much more likely to say that they are satisfied with the way democracy works than those who do not.
We also know from previous research that voters’ expectations about how competitive an election is for their preferred party or candidate are influenced by partisan biases (Delavene and Manski 2012; Dolan and Holbrook 2001). Whether they expect a close race or an easy win, this polarization influences both their expectations and their satisfaction with the democratic process.
It is important to note, however, that the results reported on election night are never final, even when media outlets project them to be so. There are several steps that must take place before election officials certify the official winners of each race. The figure below outlines the steps that most jurisdictions follow in order to determine their final, official election results. The exact sequence may vary between jurisdictions.